Research & analysis from the Allocation Strategy team.

Aug 4, 2026

The Gilt market one year on: evaluating our fixed income expected return estimates

We check in on our fixed income expected return estimates from July 2025 and what they implied for Gilts.

We decompose market drivers over multiple years and outline how this helps define forward-looking scenarios

We revisit the widely used sum-of-parts model for expected equity returns using discounted cash flow logic

We discuss how the new market regimes and industry trends require increased granularity and scenario capabilities for Capital Market Assumptions

We evaluate the track record of freely available CMAs against subsequently realised returns

Feb 27, 2026

Evaluating our short-horizon expected equity return estimates

We check in on our expected return estimates from last year and how they compare to realised outcomes.

Why sovereign fund allocation decisions need to account for macro dynamics — not just portfolio returns.

How can institutional investors integrate geopolitical scenario analysis into their asset allocation processes?

Jan 23, 2026

Interpreting the recent rise in JGB yields

We break down the drivers of rising Japanese government bond yields.